Chris Allen Yahoo Fantasy Contributor Mon, October 26, 2026 at 2:02 AM UTC · 6 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement My family still gives me plenty of surprises that feel like they've come out of nowhere. But in hindsight, there are always signs. Like my kids getting quiet right before I walk into the living room to see spilled juice on the carpet. Or my wife letting it slip that the brakes were "kind of squeaking a little bit" before noting it's taking longer for the van to stop.
The clues were there. I just wasn't paying attention.
The NFL works the same way. Sure, Sunday will always throw a curveball or two. But the biggest surprises usually come with clues: a coaching change, a shift in snap share, a front office that suddenly has reasons to sell. As fantasy football managers, our job isn't to predict every twist, it's to read the signs before everyone else does.
So, let's dig into this week's top storylines and see what the clues are telling us.
I doubt I was alone in the idea that Houston could claw its way back into the playoff race after Week 6. It traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., beat its division rival and the schedule was opening up. But J.J. McCarthy proved that last idea was a poor assumption.
You could tell McCarthy was playing on a different level from the first drive. Coming into this game, four of the Texans' losses came from QBs willing to challenge the perimeter of their defense. From Josh Allen (1.46 EPA per dropback on throws to the outside) to Daniel Jones (0.50), keeping the secondary on its toes makes things easier for the ground game. Cam Skattebo only ran into a stacked box on 17.6% of his carries. And at a -11.1% PROE, the rushing attack had to work for the Giants to pull off the win.
But at least in one full game, this isn't the same McCarthy we saw in Minnesota.
The biggest difference was how McCarthy reacted to pressure. With the Vikings, his splits when given a clean pocket and under duress were night and day. HC DeMeco Ryans knew it. He called a blitz at the highest rate so far this season (36.7%). Accordingly, not only did the protection break down for McCarthy on 50.0% of his dropbacks, but two-thirds of those pressures came in 2.5 seconds or less. Sure, he took three sacks, but he completed 83.3% of his throws, with 25% resulting in a first down . Even better, McCarthy knew who to throw it to (most of the time).
Remember, McCarthy's 29 dropbacks in regulation are the second-fewest of any Giants' starter to start and finish a game. Passing volume may be in short supply later. But seeing Malik Nabers have his third straight game with a 30+% target share is what fantasy gamers needed to see. Don't worry about Isaiah Likely, either. Over its last six games, Houston's defense hasn't allowed a TE to earn more than 60 yards. And McCarthy made Nabers and Likely his primary options in that fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 6.
With the bye week to make adjustments, we should see both, not one, back in the top 12 discussion in Week 9.
Fantasy managers with a losing record offering up their best players in trades is a tale as old as time. Real franchises don't operate any differently. After taking on their sixth loss, the Titans likely find themselves in "sell mode." And if there's an offense looking for help at RB, Tennessee's RB1 made the case for a change of scenery.
There have been just five instances of an RB racking up more than 100 yards on the ground against the Browns going back to the start of the '25 season. Tony Pollard owns two of them. Just three have found the end zone multiple times against Cleveland. Pollard is in that group. And despite Pollard being on an offense averaging the fewest points per game, he's at least helping to keep them on schedule.
Rushing Success Rate: 39.3%, 11th (out of 19 qualifiers – min. 50% team rushing rate)
Adj. Yards after Contact per Att.: 3.42, 11th
To be clear, I'm not trying to frame Pollard as a better trade candidate than Jonathan Taylor. Although, speaking of Taylor, the two sitting side-by-side in down-to-down efficiency (40.0% and 39.3%) and adj. YAC per att. (3.42 and 3.36) is something of a surprise. Pollard even has just two fewer explosive runs than the Colts' starting rusher. And when you couple those metrics with his offensive situation, Pollard's output becomes even more impressive.
The Titans' offensive line ranks 30th in pass-block win rate . It's part of why Pollard has the third-fewest yards of any RB with 100+ carries, but ranks 11th in rushing yards over expected . Defenses have met Pollard at or behind the LOS on 51 of his carries (seventh-most), but his per-touch efficiency sits just below the league average.
Pollard's last audition will be next week against the Bengals (8th in PPR PPG allowed to RBs). Despite tightening up in the red zone, they're still allowing the sixth-highest explosive rushing rate, and they rank at the league average in EPA per rush. For fantasy managers looking to make a push, acquiring Pollard now before a potential trade (the Vikings come to mind) will pay off down the road.
I was skeptical about Josh Jacobs' first week back with the Packers. I realize the league allowed him to be in meetings and work out at the facility while suspended. But after a month and a half, he was back in the end zone like it was 2025.
There were multiple positives to having No. 8 back on the field. The first is in the above clip. MarShawn Lloyd and Pierre Strong needed multiple weeks to exit a game with more than one first down as a receiver. Jacobs generated three on seven targets. He's already run the most routes of any Green Bay RB. Jacobs saw more stacked boxes than Lloyd, too. Essentially, his gravity, either in the backfield or out in space, helped create opportunities for his teammates . But the Packers still have a problem up front.
Rushing Success Rate (against DET): 36.4%
The Lions ranked 17th in run-stop win rate coming into Week 7. And yet, Jacobs was hit at or behind the LOS on over half of his carries. It's not like Lloyd performed any better (33.3% success rate), but Green Bay will need to make adjustments within the protection to set up more manageable passing downs. Jacobs out-touched Lloyd almost 3:1, with all but one red-zone carry. Opportunities won't be an issue. But until the line improves, his efficiency as a runner will be.
Source: Sports
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