2026 NCAA tournament, odds: Picking Saturday&x27;s Final Four including a titanic MichiganArizona clash Frank SchwabSat, April 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC 0 This year's Final Four isn't four No. 1 seeds like a year ago, but it's a strong group. The two No. 1 seeds that got through, Michigan and Arizona, have been considered among the championship favorites since early in the season. UConn and Illinois had some late losses that cost them shots at getting a No. 1 seed. The Illini was ranked seventh in KenPom.com's efficiency metrics before the NCAA tournament began and the Huskies were 11th.
2026 NCAA tournament, odds: Picking Saturday's Final Four including a titanic Michigan-Arizona clash
Frank SchwabSat, April 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC
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This year's Final Four isn't four No. 1 seeds like a year ago, but it's a strong group.
The two No. 1 seeds that got through, Michigan and Arizona, have been considered among the championship favorites since early in the season. UConn and Illinois had some late losses that cost them shots at getting a No. 1 seed. The Illini was ranked seventh in KenPom.com's efficiency metrics before the NCAA tournament began and the Huskies were 11th. Neither team is a massive surprise in the Final Four. It should set up for a fun Saturday in Indianapolis.
Here are the picks for the Final Four, with odds from BetMGM:
Yaxel Lendeborg of the Michigan Wolverines is looking to lead his team to Monday night's championship game. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) (Michael Reaves via Getty Images)Illinois (-1.5) over UConn
UConn's comeback against Duke would have been memorable, but winning on Braylon Mullins' 35-foot heave with 0.3 seconds left made it one of the most iconic moments in NCAA tournament history. Now the Huskies somehow need to follow that act.
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The UConn team that beat UCLA, Michigan State and Duke to make the Final Four looks like the one that started the season 22-1, not the one that went 7-4 with some odd losses leading into the tournament. UConn coach Dan Hurley said in late February that the Huskies would go as far as big man Tarris Reed would take them, and that has been prophetic. Reed has been dominant in the NCAA tournament and UConn is in the Final Four.
The Huskies will need a big game out of Reed to advance to Monday's championship game, but it won't be easy against Illinois. The Illini is the tallest team in college basketball according to KenPom.com's effective height metric. That size has had more impact on the offensive end, where Illinois has been a machine scoring points all season, but it has been the Illini's defensive improvement during the NCAA tournament that has led to the Final Four berth. In the Elite Eight, Illinois held Iowa to 59 points and gave up only seven field goals inside the 3-point line. The Illini struggled on defense late in the regular season but that has changed. Even though UConn is a very good team, and Reed is showing he can take over games, Illinois' play in the tournament has been impressive. The defensive resurgence has taken the Illini to a new level. They're the slight lean in a fantastic matchup that leads into the main event on Saturday night.
Arizona (+1.5) over Michigan
The winner of Illinois-UConn will have a shot at an upset on Monday. They both are high quality teams. But the second matchup Saturday feels like the real national championship game.
Along with Duke, Arizona and Michigan had separated themselves from the rest of the sport since the early days of the season. Michigan is 35-3 with some dominant blowout wins, including a phenomenal 33-point win over Tennessee in the Elite Eight. Arizona is 36-2. The Wildcats' second-half performance against Purdue, in which they turned a seven-point halftime deficit into a 15-point win, was impressive.
If you have a strong conviction over who wins this game, you're probably fooling yourself. They couldn't be more evenly matched. At KenPom.com, Michigan's efficiency rating is the best in the sport at 38.95. Arizona's rating is 38.92. Hardly anything separates these teams. They're both good inside and defending inside. Arizona has superior depth but Michigan is more experienced. There's not a weakness to either team. If they played 100 times it would probably be close to 50-50. In that case, take the points with the underdog Arizona. But most importantly, enjoy the best matchup of the college basketball season.
Source: "AOL Sports"
Source: Sports
Published: April 4, 2026 at 09:27AM on Source: PRIME TIME
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